ADP National Employment Report Shows U.S. Employment Decreased by 157,000 Private Sector Jobs in October
November 05, 2008 at 08:15 AM EST
Largest Decrease in Private Sector Employment Since November of 2002
ROSELAND, NJ -- (Marketwire) -- 11/05/08 -- According to today's ADP National Employment Report®, private sector employment decreased by 157,000 in October. The ADP National Employment Report, created by ADP® Employer Services, a division of Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, is based on actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month.
Nonfarm Private Employment Highlights -- October Report: -- Total employment: -157,000 -- Small businesses* -25,000 -- Medium businesses** -91,000 -- Large businesses*** -41,000 -- Goods-producing sector: -126,000 -- Service-providing sector: -31,000 Addendum: -- Manufacturing industry: -85,000 * Small businesses represent payrolls with 1-49 employees ** Medium businesses represent payrolls with 50-499 employees *** Large businesses represent payrolls with more than 499 employees
According to Joel Prakken, Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, "Nonfarm private employment decreased 157,000 from September to October 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in employment from August to September was revised down from a decrease of 8,000 to a decrease of 26,000. October's ADP National Employment Report offers evidence of a labor market that continues to weaken. Note that this month, the ADP Report does not reflect the strike of some 27,000 machinists in the aerospace industry during September and October."
Prakken added, "This month's employment loss was driven by the goods-producing sector which declined 126,000 during October, its twenty-third consecutive monthly decline. The manufacturing sector marked its twenty-sixth consecutive monthly decline, losing 85,000 jobs. These losses were compounded by an employment decline in the service-providing sector of the economy which fell by 31,000, the first loss in the service-providing sector recorded by the ADP Report since November of 2002."
"Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline 41,000, while medium-size companies with between 50 and 499 workers declined 91,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, declined 25,000. This is the first outright decline in small business employment reported by the ADP Report since November of 2002, and the largest percentage decline since the economy was emerging from recession in early 2002," said Prakken.
Prakken went on to say, "In October, construction employment dropped 45,000. This was its twenty-third consecutive monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in August of 2006 to 455,000."
The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report was derived from ADP data which, during the first six months of 2008, averaged approximately 399,000 payrolls representing nearly 24 million U.S. employees. This approximately represents the size of the matched sample used this month.
Small Business Highlights -- October Report:
Due to the important contribution small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that is specific to businesses with fewer than 50 employees will be reported in the ADP Small Business Report (SM) each month. The ADP Small Business Report is a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.
-- Total small business employment: -25,000 -- Goods-producing sector: -36,000 small business jobs -- Service-providing sector: +11,000 small business jobs
Private employment among small businesses decreased by 25,000 in October, according to the ADP Small Business Report released today. Additional information about small business employment, including charts on monthly job growth and employment levels, along with historical data, is available at http://www.smallbusinessreport.adp.com.
"Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, declined 25,000. During recent history we have seen these businesses adding jobs while larger size businesses shed them. This is the first outright decline in small-size business employment reported by the ADP Report since November of 2002, and the largest percentage decline since the economy was emerging from recession in early 2002," said Joel Prakken.
To obtain additional information about the ADP National Employment Report, including additional charts, supporting data and the schedule of future release dates, or to subscribe to the monthly e-mail alerts and RSS feeds, please visit www.ADPemploymentreport.com. The November 2008 ADP National Employment Report will be released on Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 8:15 a.m. ET.
About the ADP National Employment Report®
The ADP National Employment Report, sponsored by ADP®, was developed and is maintained by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. It is a measure of employment derived from an anonymous subset of roughly 500,000 U.S. business clients. During the first six months of 2008, this subset represented approximately 399,000 U.S. business clients and nearly 24 million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors. The ADP Small Business Report (SM) is a monthly estimate of private nonfarm employment among companies in the United States with 1-49 employees and is a subset of the ADP National Employment Report. The data for both reports is collected for pay periods that can be interpolated to include the week of the 12th of each month, and processed with statistical methodologies similar to those used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute employment from its monthly survey of establishments. Due to this processing, this subset is modified to make it indicative of national employment levels; therefore, the resulting employment changes computed for the ADP National Employment Report are not representative of changes in ADP's total base of U.S. business clients.
Empirical analysis performed by Macroeconomic Advisers suggests that the ADP National Employment Report can be used to develop a forecast of "true" employment that is superior to those resulting from consensus estimates, survey data, or other models of employment that do not incorporate the results of the ADP Report.
For a description of the underlying data and the statistical properties of the series, please see "ADP National Employment Report: Development Methodology" at http://ADPemployment report.com/methodology.aspx.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NYSE: ADP), with nearly $9 billion in revenues and over 585,000 clients, is one of the world's largest providers of business outsourcing solutions. Leveraging more than 55 years of experience, ADP offers the widest range of HR, payroll, tax and benefits administration solutions from a single source. ADP's easy-to-use solutions for employers provide superior value to companies of all types and sizes. ADP is also a leading provider of integrated computing solutions to auto, truck, motorcycle, marine and recreational vehicle dealers throughout the world. For more information about ADP or to contact a local ADP sales office, reach us at 1.800.225.5237 or visit the company's Web site at www.ADP.com.
About Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC (MA) has been the most trusted source for U.S. macroeconomic forecasts and commentary, monetary and fiscal policy analysis, and econometric modeling for 25 years. MA's clients include leading financial service firms, nonfinancial corporations, key policymaking agencies of the U.S. government, as well as State and Foreign Government agencies. Additional information on Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC is available on the company's Web site, www.MacroAdvisers.com.
The ADP National Employment Report is a registered trademark of ADP of North America, Inc.
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