ADP National Employment Report Shows U.S. Employment Increased by 9,000 Private Sector Jobs in July
July 30, 2008 at 08:15 AM EDT
ADP Report Offers Continuing Evidence of the Weak Employment Situation
ROSELAND, NJ -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 07/30/08 -- According to today's ADP National Employment Report®, private sector employment increased by 9,000 in July. The ADP National Employment Report, created by ADP® Employer Services, a division of Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, is based on actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month.
-- Total employment: +9,000 -- Small businesses* +50,000 -- Medium businesses** -9,000 -- Large businesses*** -32,000 -- Goods-producing sector: -65,000 -- Service-providing sector: +74,000 Addendum: --
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | Notice: | | Due to the Labor Day holiday, the release date for the upcoming August | | ADP National Employment Report will be Thursday, September 4, 2008. | | For the complete 2008 release schedule, please visit | | http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/Final_release_Schedule.pdf. | +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
According to Joel Prakken, Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, "Nonfarm private employment increased 9,000 from June to July 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in employment from May to June was revised up from a decrease of 79,000 to a decrease of 77,000."
"Though July's figures showed a slight employment gain, the ADP Report's recent three-month average of negative 14,000 suggests that the weakened employment situation continues."
Prakken added, "This month's employment gain was driven by growth in the service-providing sector which advanced 74,000. July employment in the goods-producing sector declined 65,000, while manufacturing employment declined 49,000, marking their twentieth and twenty-third consecutive monthly declines, respectively."
"Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline 32,000, while medium-size companies with between 50 and 499 workers declined by 9,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, advanced 50,000 during the month," said Prakken.
Prakken went on to say, "Two sectors of the economy hit hardest by recent problems in mortgage markets have been residential construction and financial activities related to home sales and mortgage lending. Today's report suggests some lessening of the recent strain on employment in these industries. In July, construction employment dropped 16,000. Though this was the twentieth consecutive monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in August of 2006 to 350,000, it was one of the smallest declines in recent months. In addition, employment in financial activities rose 4,000 during the month."
The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report was derived from ADP data which, during the first six months of 2008, averaged approximately 399,000 payrolls representing nearly 24 million U.S. employees. This approximately represents the size of the matched sample used this month.
Small Business Highlights -- July Report:
Due to the important contribution small businesses make to economic growth, employment data that is specific to businesses with fewer than 50 employees will be reported in the ADP Small Business Report (SM) each month. The ADP Small Business Report is a subset of the ADP National Employment Report.
-- Total small business employment: +50,000 -- Goods-producing sector: -6,000 small business jobs -- Service-providing sector: +56,000 small business jobs
Private employment among small businesses increased by 50,000 in July, according to the ADP Small Business Report released today. Additional information about small business employment, including charts on monthly job growth and employment levels, along with historical data, is available at http://www.smallbusinessreport.adp.com.
"Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, advanced 50,000 during July, rebounding somewhat from the weaker gain of 7,000 reported in June. July's growth in employment is consistent with the gains seen among small-size businesses during most of the recent months. These figures continue to offer evidence of the resiliency small-size businesses have demonstrated over the past several years when compared to the job losses experienced at larger firms," said Joel Prakken.
To obtain additional information about the ADP National Employment Report, including additional charts, supporting data and the schedule of future release dates, or to subscribe to the monthly e-mail alerts and RSS feeds, please visit www.ADPemploymentreport.com. The August 2008 ADP National Employment Report will be released on Thursday, September 4, 2008 at 8:15 a.m. ET.
About the ADP National Employment Report®
The ADP National Employment Report, sponsored by ADP®, was developed and is maintained by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. It is a measure of employment derived from an anonymous subset of roughly 500,000 U.S. business clients. During the first six months of 2008, this subset represented approximately 399,000 U.S. business clients and nearly 24 million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors. The ADP Small Business Report (SM) is a monthly estimate of private nonfarm employment among companies in the United States with 1-49 employees and is a subset of the ADP National Employment Report. The data for both reports is collected for pay periods that can be interpolated to include the week of the 12th of each month, and processed with statistical methodologies similar to those used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute employment from its monthly survey of establishments. Due to this processing, this subset is modified to make it indicative of national employment levels; therefore, the resulting employment changes computed for the ADP National Employment Report are not representative of changes in ADP's total base of U.S. business clients.
Empirical analysis performed by Macroeconomic Advisers suggests that the ADP National Employment Report can be used to develop a forecast of "true" employment that is superior to those resulting from consensus estimates, survey data, or other models of employment that do not incorporate the results of the ADP Report.
For a description of the underlying data and the statistical properties of the series, please see "ADP National Employment Report: Development Methodology" at http://ADPemployment report.com/methodology.aspx.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NYSE: ADP), with nearly $8 billion in revenues and over 600,000 clients, is one of the world's largest providers of business outsourcing solutions. Leveraging more than 55 years of experience, ADP offers the widest range of HR, payroll, tax and benefits administration solutions from a single source. ADP's easy-to-use solutions for employers provide superior value to companies of all types and sizes. ADP is also a leading provider of integrated computing solutions to auto, truck, motorcycle, marine and recreational vehicle dealers throughout the world. For more information about ADP or to contact a local ADP sales office, reach us at 1.800.225.5237 or visit the company's Web site at www.ADP.com.
About Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC (MA) has been the most trusted source for U.S. macroeconomic forecasts and commentary, monetary and fiscal policy analysis, and econometric modeling for 25 years. MA's clients include leading financial service firms, nonfinancial corporations, key policymaking agencies of the U.S. government, as well as State and Foreign Government agencies. Additional information on Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC is available on the company's Web site, www.MacroAdvisers.com.
The ADP National Employment Report is a registered trademark of ADP of North America, Inc.
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